000 FXUS64 KJAN 252320 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The rest of today and tomorrow...Warm and mostly calm conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. A system just north of the CWA could bring some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder across the Hwy 82 corridor. Otherwise, partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 80s will continue through the afternoon. By this evening, dry conditions are expected areawide, with cloud cover increasing overnight. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s. Patchy fog and low clouds will also be possible in the southeast tonight into tomorrow morning. By Friday, mostly dry conditions and temperatures in the middle 80s will persist throughout the CWA. A boundary looks to remain stalled over the Middle Mississippi Valley, while to our southeast, a surface ridge will continue building into the CWA. Rain chances look to remain just northwest of MS, but we cannot rule out a light shower in SE AR and NW MS tomorrow afternoon. /AJ/ Friday Night through Thursday...The long term period will start off with quiet and dry conditions as global guidance continues to highlight a ridge axis maintaining its strong presence over the eastern half of the CONUS. At the same time, a 997mb sfc low in the Central Plains will continue to push northeast towards the Ohio River Valley region heading into early Saturday morning. The ridge axis axis will help deflect most shortwave trough energy to the northwest of the forecast area for us, with some rain chances possible on Saturday across part of the Delta. No changes have been made to the Limited wind graphic for Saturday and Sunday. Storm chances will begin to increase by Monday morning/afternoon as southerly flow aloft helps build up moisture from the Gulf ahead of a surface cold front. Furthermore, several of these storms will have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall at times thanks to deep layer moisture circulating around the retreating ridge and moving along a huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic waters. The threat for strong to severe storms will be low heading into the next work week as the deep layer shear and instability will remain west of our forecast area. By Tuesday evening, a stronger ridge will start to build over the Mississippi Valley Region as the aforementioned cold front shifts east out of the forecast area giving us a short break from the rain. Isolated showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday with quiet conditions expected on Friday. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at most area TAF sites this evening and into Friday. Some patchy fog and/or low stratus development will be possible at namely KHBG and KPIB towards day break. This will result in a brief lowering of flight categories to at least MVFR status between 09-13Z. After sunrise and warming ensues, both will quickly erode and a return to VFR flight categories is expected. Winds tonight will be from the south southeast around 5 knots. Winds will be breezy from the south on Friday and sustained between 10-15 knots, with gusts around 25 knots possible at times. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 86 68 86 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 62 86 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 62 85 68 86 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 64 83 68 86 / 0 10 10 10 Greenwood 64 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19