000
FXUS64 KJAN 191754
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1254 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Mesoscale update: This morning the forecast remains on track as the
dense fog has cleared in the far southeast and low stratus/fog is
beginning to clear in the the Ms Delta , thus no major changes have
been made to the forecast. Sky cover has been increased to reflect
the overcast cloud cover today. Rain and isolated storm chances will
remain possible today mainly along and north of the HWY-82 corridor.
High temperatures for the day will have a wide gradient from
northwest to southeast. High temps in the northwest will be
seasonably cool in the low - mid 70s, while high temps in the
southeast will be seasonably warm in the low - mid 80s./KP/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Today through Tonight...
Today: Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate >590DM ridge centered over
the Bay of Campeche, while quasi-zonal flow persists across the
region. Broad cold core/sfc low & frontal system are moving into the
Hudson Bay area, with another sfc low moving into the OH Valley.
This is bringing a cold front towards the area, where a few radar
returns persist across the Mid-South in southeast AR & northern
MS. Can`t rule out a stronger storm sliding into the Hwy 82
corridor over the few couple hours but likelihood is diminishing.
Main concerns remain for low stratus/dense fog this morning.
Warm, moist southwesterly flow gradually becomes westerly as the
sfc low swings into the OH Valley. There has been some vsby drops
across the Hwy 45 corridor with patchy fog, while dense fog along
the I-59 corridor up to Lauderdale County area. Main adjustments
were to add an "Elevated" for areas of dense fog in the HWO
graphics along & southeast of a line from Lincoln-Newton/Lauderdale
Counties, while an adjacent "Limited" along & east-southeast of a
line from Adams-Simpson-Neshoba-Oktibbeha/Clay counties. HREF
probs have been persistent for some dense fog so made that
expansion in the HWO graphics. This will persist through mid-
morning around 9AM. As the front sinks south, expect a gradual
improvement in low stratus/fog into the day. Rain & isolated storm
chances will dwindle & remain confined to east-northeast MS.
Winds will shift more northerly around daybreak in the Delta to
mid-afternoon northwest of the Natchez Trace. Highs will be
seasonably cool, in the low- mid 70s, in the wake northwest of the
Natchez Trace corridor, while seasonably warm, some +5 deg F
above normal, to the southeast in the low-mid 80s. Locales in the
Pine Belt could eclipse the 90 degree mark.
Tonight: As broad cold core low/sfc frontal system swing into the
Hudson Bay, frontal zone is expected to slide southeast through the
Gulf Coast states. Northerly winds will build in, but this front
won`t be a good clearing of deep moisture. It will clear out rain
chances briefly, before increased isentropic showers & possibly a
few rumbles of thunder build back into the ArkLaMiss Delta before
daybreak. Persistence will be the case for fog, with the Hwy 84
to I- 59 corridors, south of I-20, having the best chance for
patchy to patchy dense fog. For now, did not introduce dense fog
but another round of dense fog is probable. Will hold off any
graphics during this fcst package but may be needed later.
Seasonable lows in the mid-upper 50s are expected northwest of
the Natchez Trace, while seasonably warm to the southeast, in the
low-mid 60s. /DC/
Saturday through next Thursday...In the wake of a cold front, a
couple of disturbances will shift east across the region in zonal
flow during the upcoming weekend. This will result in decent chances
for showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm or two, across the
forecast area Saturday and again on Sunday. Cooler drier air will
also advect into the region during this time. Look for highs on
Saturday to range from around 60 to the upper 70s, and then in the
60s on Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be from the upper 40s to
middle 50s. Then noticeably cooler conditions will be seen Sunday
night, as lows cool into the low and mid 40s areawide.
As the final disturbance exits the region late Sunday, northerly
winds will persist as high pressure to the northwest builds into the
forecast area. Quiet weather and drier air will exist across the
region Monday into Tuesday. While conditions will steadily warm
through mid-week, another weak frontal boundary is currently
forecast to sink south into the forecast area late Wednesday into
Thursday. At the moment, little to no chance of rain is expected
across the area. However, this will bring an increase in cloud
cover across the CWA. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Aviation: IFR/MVFR categories remain at TAF sites GLH and GWO as a
layer of low clouds remain, expect cloud cover to lift slightly
throughout the afternoon keeping sites in MVFR cat for a majority of
the period. Rain chances in Ms Delta overnight may lower categories
at TAF sites GLH/GTR/GWO briefly before improving back to MVFR. All
other sites will bounce from MVFR/VFR conditions throughout the rest
of the afternoon into the night. Beginning around 10Z expect another
round of patchy dense fog to impact southeastern TAF sites through
15Z as high moisture and low winds will make it east for fog
development./KP/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 62 69 50 60 / 30 70 80 70
Meridian 62 72 49 59 / 30 60 60 80
Vicksburg 59 65 50 61 / 40 70 80 60
Hattiesburg 67 81 57 63 / 20 50 40 80
Natchez 63 71 51 61 / 20 50 70 60
Greenville 55 59 50 60 / 30 80 60 40
Greenwood 55 61 49 60 / 20 80 70 50
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
KP/19/DC
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion
Mt Washington Wx CAM
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